Historically, western media has done a rather poor job at covering issues in China and 2021 is no different. That has usually meant media/investor overreaction when not required and media/investor underreaction when required.

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The Australian equity market (as measured by the S&P/ASX 200) continued its upward trend to record a ninth straight positive month, returning (+2.3%) in the month to take the June quarter to a strong (+8.3%). The Financial-Year posted an extraordinary (+27.8%). 

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It’s fair to say it’s been quite an unbelievable period since our last update.

Ups and downs in virus numbers, declining hospitalisation and death rates in most jurisdictions, particularly those with heightened vaccination rates, some of the largest quarterly economic growth numbers on record, surging inflation in the USA and concerns regarding inflation in other countries, all whilst central banks attempt to reassure investors regarding their plans, and geopolitical risks rumble in the background.

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The Australian equity market (as measured by the S&P/ASX 200) continued to press forward, posting a healthy (+4.3%) in the March quarter. The 12-months to 31 March 2021 finished with an extraordinary return (+37.5%), once the carnage of March 2020 dropped out of the yearly numbers.

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The Australian equity market (as measured by the S&P/ASX 200) continued its recovery surging (+13.7%) in the December quarter, underpinned by a rise in sentiment as positive vaccine trials and rollouts became closer to realisation. After a tough finish to the September quarter, the market slowly began to recuperate in October as the release of the federal budget provided confidence that fiscal policy was to continue supporting the economy.

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There are many things to take out of 2020; a year where records were broken multiple times, a year where it seemed we had multiple years of events crammed into one; and a year that went both very fast and/or very slow depending on your predicament.  

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At its November meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced a package of stimulus measures, largely as expected by economists and market participants, as both the Governor and Deputy Governor of the RBA had well flagged their intentions in the lead up to the meeting.

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Below is a summary of market movements this quarter and major changes to some of the key asset classes:

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Is it September already?

It is almost unbelievable that family discussions around how we will spend Christmas will start very soon and with the end of the year in sight, it seems to have gone quick in terms of the lack of social events and interactions, holidays and the general variations of life.

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Bad news sells!

When you read the news, sometimes it can feel like the only things reported are terrible, depressing events. Why do the media concentrate on the bad things in life, rather than the good?

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We have seen a roller coaster ride in investment markets over the last couple of months with a recent rebound.

The US equity market fell more than 34% from peak to trough this year, before rebounding more than 27%. In Australian dollar terms, the fall was only 25%, given movements in the Australian dollar. Therefore, being unhedged on currency for US equity investments, as Financial Keys clients predominantly are, assisted materially. The Australian equity market fell more than 36% before rebounding more than 20% more recently.

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With all the changes we are witnessing to our own working and living arrangements, as well as those of our family and friends, we wanted to take this opportunity to provide an update. The Financial Keys team are currently working from home to do our part in reducing the amount of people travelling to and from the city. It is, however, business as usual, and we maintain the same capabilities as we have in the office.

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We have all been inundated with negative news flow over the last few weeks. We have been looking for some positives to write about of late, to help everyone’s psyche at present. We have come across some interesting information pieces over the last couple of days and elaborate below.

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Some of you may have seen or heard of the recent policy action from central banks around the world in response to the significant economic and market impact caused by the response to control the spread of the virus.

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We understand many of you would have seen the incredible share market volatility during the last few weeks, which has seen trading days of up or down 10%. Overall share markets have experienced falls which appear to be a function of panic regarding the inability to model the impacts of Coronavirus containment on the economy and asset prices. Once panic sets in, rationality is hard to come by. 

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