Once again, we find ourselves in the midst of volatile investment markets across all asset classes. In this article we look at what is occurring across investment markets, what is causing the moves; and the opportunities that begin to arise for the astute long term investor.

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The Australian equity market (as measured by the S&P/ASX 200) bounced back from a difficult start to the period (-6.4% in January) to post a positive return (+0.74%) for the quarter. The March quarter was dominated by the outbreak of war in Ukraine which caused massive volatility in growth assets and the final realisation that inflation will not be “transitory”. The fall-out of war coupled with increasing inflationary pressures, China growth concerns and the rather strong February reporting season resulted in a very uncertain period, filled with questions, and one which made portfolio positioning challenging.

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Investment markets are currently being driven by two risk events:

1. Inflation and rising central bank interest rates

2. Russia / Ukraine conflict

In isolation, market sentiment would’ve settled already. However, markets are struggling right now to account for the combination of both and the spectre of both feeding off or into each other.

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What we know so far, in what is a very fluid situation, is that Russian troops have moved into Ukraine from the north, east, and south. It also appears that there's been no official use of NATO or allied troops yet. 

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Australian equities (as measured by the S&P/ASX 200 TR) bounced back from a sluggish start to the quarter, to return (+2.75%) for the month of December and end the year on a positive note. For the December quarter, the Australian market returned (+2.09%) to round out what was a turbulent 2021 for equity markets.

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An Essay on Man is a poem published by Alexander Pope in 1732. It was dedicated to Henry St John, 1st Viscount Bolingbroke, hence the opening line of the poem…."Awake, St John..."

The poem focuses on four epistles. The first surveys relations between humans and the universe; the second discusses humans as individuals, the third addresses the relationship between the individual and society and the fourth questions the potential of the individual for happiness.

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Amidst an Infrastructure surge and Global Supply Chain issues, Financial Keys is on the move.

Westconnex, NorthConnex, and Sydney Light Rail are all great examples of Sydney’s booming infrastructure works, designed to support its growing population, and increase mobility for its constituents.

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The Australian equity market’s (as measured by the S&P/ASX 200) nine-month positive run came to an end with a (-1.85%) return for the month of September however the quarter ended in positive territory, returning (+1.71%). The quarter was consumed with continuous lockdowns as the Delta strain took hold of a number of parts of the country, there were global growth concerns, inflation fears as well as the inclusion of the all-important August corporate reporting period.

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Historically, western media has done a rather poor job at covering issues in China and 2021 is no different. That has usually meant media/investor overreaction when not required and media/investor underreaction when required.

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The Australian equity market (as measured by the S&P/ASX 200) continued its upward trend to record a ninth straight positive month, returning (+2.3%) in the month to take the June quarter to a strong (+8.3%). The Financial-Year posted an extraordinary (+27.8%). 

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It’s fair to say it’s been quite an unbelievable period since our last update.

Ups and downs in virus numbers, declining hospitalisation and death rates in most jurisdictions, particularly those with heightened vaccination rates, some of the largest quarterly economic growth numbers on record, surging inflation in the USA and concerns regarding inflation in other countries, all whilst central banks attempt to reassure investors regarding their plans, and geopolitical risks rumble in the background.

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The Australian equity market (as measured by the S&P/ASX 200) continued to press forward, posting a healthy (+4.3%) in the March quarter. The 12-months to 31 March 2021 finished with an extraordinary return (+37.5%), once the carnage of March 2020 dropped out of the yearly numbers.

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The Australian equity market (as measured by the S&P/ASX 200) continued its recovery surging (+13.7%) in the December quarter, underpinned by a rise in sentiment as positive vaccine trials and rollouts became closer to realisation. After a tough finish to the September quarter, the market slowly began to recuperate in October as the release of the federal budget provided confidence that fiscal policy was to continue supporting the economy.

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There are many things to take out of 2020; a year where records were broken multiple times, a year where it seemed we had multiple years of events crammed into one; and a year that went both very fast and/or very slow depending on your predicament.  

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At its November meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced a package of stimulus measures, largely as expected by economists and market participants, as both the Governor and Deputy Governor of the RBA had well flagged their intentions in the lead up to the meeting.

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